Article,
Sparse dynamic graph learning for district heat load forecasting
Affiliations
- [1] Central South University [NORA names: China; Asia, East];
- [2] Jimei University [NORA names: China; Asia, East];
- [3] Lanzhou University of Technology [NORA names: China; Asia, East];
- [4] Technical University of Denmark [NORA names: DTU Technical University of Denmark; University; Denmark; Europe, EU; Nordic; OECD]
Abstract
Accurate heat load forecasting is crucial for the efficient operation and management of district heating systems. This study introduces a novel Sparse Dynamic Graph Neural Network (SDGNN) framework designed to address the complexities of forecasting heat load in district heating networks. The proposed model represents the district heating network as a dynamic graph, with nodes corresponding to consumers or heat sources and edges denoting temporal dependencies. The SDGNN framework comprises three key components: (1) a sparse graph learning module that identifies the most relevant nodes and edges, (2) a spatio-temporal memory enhancement module that captures both short-term and long-term dependencies, and (3) a temporal fusion module that integrates node representations into a comprehensive global forecast. Evaluated on a real-world district heating dataset from Denmark, the SDGNN model demonstrates superior accuracy and efficiency compared to existing methods. The results indicate that the SDGNN framework effectively captures intricate spatio-temporal patterns in historical heat load data, achieving up to 5.7% improvement in RMSE, 7.4% in MAE, and 5.7% in CVRMSE over baseline models. Additionally, incorporating meteorological factors into the model further enhances its predictive performance. These findings suggest that the SDGNN framework is a robust and scalable solution for district heat load forecasting, with potential applications in other domains involving spatio-temporal graph data.