Facing the challenge of NDVI dataset consistency for improved characterization of vegetation response to climate variability

Non-linear trend detection in Earth observation time series has become a standard method to characterize changes in terrestrial ecosystems. However, results are largely dependent on the quality and consistency of the input data, and only few studies have addressed the impact of data artifacts on the interpretation of detected abrupt changes. Here we study non-linear dynamics and turning points (TPs) of temperate grasslands in East Eurasia using two independent state-of-the-art satellite NDVI datasets (CGLS v3 and MODIS C6) and explore the impact of water availability on observed vegetation changes during 2001–2019. By applying the Break For Additive Season and Trend (BFAST01) method, we conducted a classification typology based on vegetation dynamics which was spatially consistent between the datasets for 40.86 % (459,669 km) of the study area. When considering also the timing of the TPs, 27.09 % of the pixels showed consistent results between datasets, suggesting that careful interpretation was needed for most of the areas of detected vegetation dynamics when applying BFAST to a single dataset. Notably, for these areas showing identical typology we found that interrupted decreases in vegetation productivity were dominant in the transition zone between desert and steppes. Here, a strong link with changes in water availability was found for >80 % of the area, indicating that increasing drought stress had regulated vegetation productivity in recent years. This study shows the necessity of a cautious interpretation of the results when conducting advanced characterization of vegetation response to climate variability, but at the same time also the opportunities of going beyond the use of single dataset in advanced time-series approaches to better understanding dryland vegetation dynamics for improved anthropogenic interventions to combat vegetation productivity decrease.